Models are locking onto a tropical risk for Florida & Gulf states in the short-term. If this tropical disturbance undergoes genesis, it is anticipated that it will stay on the weaker spectrum.

Genesis risk:
Cal. ECMWF EPS: 80%
Cal. GEFS: 90%
Official NHC: 60% pic.twitter.com/kIE06x33sa

— Mike Ventrice (@MJVentrice) September 11, 2019