Joe Bastardi

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Je ferai une traduction plus tard.

En faisant pour le mieux, car c'est pas évident.

THURSDAY: MODELS SUGGEST SPLIT DEVELOPING WITH EASTERN EUROPEAN TROUGH BACKING SLOWLY IN THE MEANS. CAN THIS BE TRUSTED?

The mean trough over the eastern part of Europe has pulses of cold air coming into it, and though some of it lets up early next week, the overall look is now trending to retrogression. This is because a separate stream is developing over the Atlantic and starting undercut the ridge over the west. So, the end result would be the squeezing northwest of the mean ridge toward Iceland and Greenland as energy undercuts it. Such a pattern is a negative NAO, which favors pressure falls from the Azores to south of Newfoundland and rises from Greenland to Scandinavia at the surface. This of course would raise the spectre of cold backing southwest with time and the reversal of the core of cold from southeast Europe to northwest in step-down fashion over the next couple of weeks. I will be watching for this trend this weekend because it is not only a crucial aspect to European weather but also across the pond in the states.

Interestingly enough, the U.S.-generated models went the opposite way with all of this, trending toward a positive phase of the NAO, opposite of the look of the European. The ante is really upped for the week of the 22nd, looking at todays run of the European valid through the 19th, as the polar vortex is over northeast Scandinavia looking like its backing southwest. So, we may have some interesting things to debate later on.