Suivi des systèmes (sub)tropicaux en Mer Méditerranée et Mer Noire

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17 Oct 2022 | 1200 UTC | 02M/JON - ADVISORY 4 ...JON NOW TROPICAL AND STRENGTHENING...

Current location: 34.2°N, 32.4°E

Maximum sustained winds: 30kt/55 kph

Minimum central pressure: 1007 mbar

Moving: NNE at 10 kt

 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Jon has improved remarkably overnight. The convective pattern is now quite good, with strong storms over the LLCC and moderate upper-level outflow. Shear has decreased over the storm and Jon is now in the best conditions of its short life. Jon is currently strengthening and this is likely to continue through tonight. Jon has approached closer to Cyprus than expected and is in fact still moving closer, but it is not expected to make landfall there today. Any landfall should be brief, as the storm is forecast to turn out to sea and make a fairly wide loop over the eastern Mediterranean before returning to Cyprus in a few days. AlI the global models weaken Jon as soon as it turns to the southwest, and organized convection is forecast to end within 24 hours. As a result, Jon is expected to weaken to a remnant low as it tracks back toward Cyprus and then dissipate over that island or mainland Turkey.

 

CURRENT CONDITIONS:

Jon displays extensive deep convection in the northern quadrant while the eastern and western quadrants are also firing some convection. The convective pattern and outflow are typical of a tropical cyclone, and Jon is assessed to be fully tropical at this time. The storm is assessed at 30kt based on ASCAT data from this morning. High winds and heavy rain are occurring over Cyprus and coastal Turkey and this is expected to continue for the rest of the day and sporadically thereafter until dissipation.

 

Animation des 10 dernières heures (Eumetview) :

 

Images Sentinel-3 :

15/10

17/10

 

 

Modifié 17 octobre 2022 par quentinrey

[quentinrey]

Peut-être lié avec ce système, une ou plusieurs trombes marines observées :

 

 

Autres Tweets (photos & vidéos) :

- https://twitter.com/Habanosblue/status/1581970441006026752
- https://twitter.com/weatheralert15/status/1582050353755066370
- https://twitter.com/KatieV1981/status/1581992462679015424
- https://twitter.com/KrinosKrinou/status/1582011164636385280
- https://twitter.com/Dainarts/status/1581986149001633797

 

Modifié 17 octobre 2022 par quentinrey