ToFred

Les prévisionistes du NHC sont complètement à la rue et le reconnaissent eux même en ce qui concerne la trajectoire et l'affaiblissement ou non de Epsilon. c'était d'ailleurs le cas pour beacoup d'autres cyclones durant cette saison 2005. Les pauvres sont obligés de faire leur boulot... sans même avoir confiance dans leur propres prévisions.... Mais il y a quand même une chose que l'on peut constater: En matière de prévision cycolnique, ce que l'on sait, c'est que l'on ne sait pas grand chose.... Ci dessous la 'tropical discussion' du NHC, en anglais, mais assez facile à lire... Plutot surprenant de la part d'un prévisioniste du NHC ! " 000 WTNT44 KNHC 041440 TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005 AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER ...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR. EPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION. ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU? FORECASTER AVILA " Assez drole... non ? Tof

/emoticons/wink@2x.png 2x" width="20" height="20"> Epsilon est devenu aujourd'hui le 14ème cyclone de l'année ! /emoticons/wink@2x.png 2x" width="20" height="20">/emoticons/sad@2x.png 2x" width="20" height="20"> Epsilon est situé dans l'atlantique Est et fait route au Nord-Est à la vitesse de 22 km/h. il devrait devenir extratopical d'ici 24h. pression au centre : 987 mb Vents moyens de 120 km/h Trajectoire: Ici Image satellite NOAA : Ici Est-ce que Epsilon est le premier cyclone jamais vu au mois de décembre ?? (Il y avait Noel en 2001 quasimment au même endroit mais c'était en Novembre...) Tof

Le dernier bulletin du NHC : Le record de pression est confirmé ! Fred 00 WTNT34 KNHC 191158 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...WILMA MAINTAINING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...RECORD PRESSURE CONFIRMED BY AIRCRAFT CREW... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES... 550 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES THIS INTENSE AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST RETURNING FROM ITS MISSION IN WILMA...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 882 MB...26.05 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 882 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN

sorry pour les fautes je ne m'étais pas relu... Reviens Cirrus tu vois bien que y a pas que toi qui fait des fautes!

Une liste de nom étant réalisée pour chacune des années à venir, les lettres commençants par Q, U, X, Y et Z sont excluent des listes car elles ne regroupent pas assez de prénoms. De même les cyclones marquants de par leurs dégats ou le nombre de leurs victimes sont retirés à jamais des listes: il n'y aura donc plus de cyclones du nomn de Gilbert, Mitch et autre Andrew... Fred

Effectivement le NHC confirme bien WILMA en catégorie 5... a 892 HPA ! Fred WTNT64 KNHC 190629 TCUAT4 HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. FORECASTER AVILA

Effectivement c'est pas encourageant... HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST MADE ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SO FAR...OF 75 KT. A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTH EYEWALL REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 64 KT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE THINKING REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WILMA CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. WILMA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BEFORE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS." <...> NHC FORECASTER FRANKLINSource?

Les derniers runs de NOGAPS et GFS pronostiquent que WILMA obliquera sa trajectoire vers le Nord-Est au moment ou il touchera la pointe Ouest de Cuba.. Conséquence immédiate : WILMA risque de s'attarder sur Cuba exposant la cote Nord à des vents très violents pendant une trentaine d'heures... Ca peut faire très mal... /emoticons/wink@2x.png 2x" width="20" height="20"> Fred

Salut ! Y a t il qqn qui aurait des infos sur la trajectoire estimée de Wilma avec d'autres modèles que GFS ? (j 'ai pas vraiment confiance en GFS pour t >= 4j !) Nico36 peux tu nous donné le lien ou tu as trouvé ton image de trajectoire STP ? Merci d'avance ! Tof