cyco

OK. Je pense avoir trouvé la solution, je pratiquerai dorénavant le double affichage 😋

Si ce n'est pas dur de faire la conversion, je te laisserai le soin de la faire 😉 Pour ma part, je ne consulte quasiment que des sites américains pour m'informer / me documenter donc je m'adapte aux unités de mesures américaines.

Vents soutenus de 120 mph mesuré par un avion de reconnaissance. ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS HUMBERTO STRONGER AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE THREATENS BERMUDA... ...LARGE HURRICANE-FORCE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND... 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 18 Location: 32.2°N 68.1°W Moving: ENE at 16 mph Min pressure: 952 mb Max sustained: 120 mph

Les Îles du Nord (Saint Martin et Saint Barthélémy) sont placés en vigilance jaune cyclonique par MF depuis ce matin 9h20 Vigilance MF

Dernières données NHC : ...HUMBERTO'S EYE CROSSING A NOAA BUOY... ...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA LATER TODAY... 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 18 Location: 31.7°N 69.6°W Moving: ENE at 16 mph Min pressure: 951 mb Max sustained: 115 mph

Une nouvelle zone à surveiller selon le NHC: 1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend to the east of the Windward Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible as it moves west to west-northwestward over the islands and across the eastern Caribbean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Une zone de Basse pression qui pourrait se développer au sud de l'arc antillais. Sur GFS, on voit bien un petit quelque chose de modelisé. Si développement il y'a, on aura affaire à un "barbadien". A suivre....

Comme prévu la depression tropicale n°10 est passée tempête tropicale Jerry ce jour. Jerry pourrait intéresser les Îles du Nord de l'arc antillais même si les prévisions actuelles de trajectoire ne donnent aucun impact direct.

Faut bien suivre en ce moment.... Ça évolue vite. Imelda a été rétrogradé en Depression tropicale pendant que Humberto passait en catégorie 3. TD 10 devrait passer tempête tropicale mercredi et le NHC surveille déjà une onde tropicale qui sortirait des côtes africaines jeudi.

Je m'attendais pas à ce qu'Imelda apparaisse dans le Golfe du Mexique, surtout avec une zone qui était à 30% de chance de développement sous 2 jours il me semble encore ce matin. Le prochain nom sur la liste est Jerry.

Les prévisions NHC pour la dépression tropicale n°10:

C'est parti pour la dépression tropicale n°10... Le premier bulletin du NHC sera initié à 11h heure locale. Special Message from NHC Issued 17 Sep 2019 14:11 UTC NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten located well east of the Lesser Antilles at 11 AM EDT.

Humberto se renforce et est maintenant en catégorie 2. Un Avion de reconnaissance a mesuré des vents soutenus de 100mph dans le quadrant SO. ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AND LARGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... 8:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 Location: 30.6°N 74.0°W Moving: ENE at 8 mph Min pressure: 961 mb Max sustained: 100 mph

Selon le NHC, on devrait voir la naissance d'une dépression tropicale sur le bassin Atlantique. Le prochain nom est Imelda. 1. A small low pressure system is located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little better organized this morning, and conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. En terme de trajectoire et selon les modèles américains et européens, le phénomène ne menacerait aucune terre directement mais passerait à proximité du Nord des Petites Antilles et ensuite des Bahamas. Cette tendance persiste depuis plusieurs jours mais reste à surveiller.

Oui on distingue bien l'œil maintenant.

Les chances de voir un phénomène se développer sur le bassin Atlantique cette semaine sont de plus en plus fortes. L'incertude concerne la trajectoire de l'invest 97L. Et celle ci dépendra de l'influence d'Humberto comme expliqué dans l'extrait du blog de Jeff Masters datant du 15 septembre : Odds rising for development of 97L in the central Atlantic A vigorous disturbance in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic tropics has a good chance of becoming a tropical depression this week. Now officially Invest 97L, this tropical wave is moving west at about 15 mph through the central tropical Atlantic and will likely angle west-northwest as the week unfolds. Convection in this wave was widespread but relatively disorganized on Sunday, with plenty of spin evident on satellite. ASCAT scatterometer imagery showed hints of a weak, open circulation center around 8°N, 40°W, near the south end of the wave. Wind shear ahead of 97L will be moderate to strong over the next couple of days (around 15 – 20 knots), the mid-level atmosphere will be moderately moist (55-60% relative humidity), and SSTs will be plenty warm, around 29°C (84°F). Wind shear will abate later this week and the atmosphere will moisten, giving 97L a better chance to develop. In its 2 pm EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30%* chance of becoming at least a tropical depression by Tuesday and an 80% chance by Friday. The 0Z runs of the GFS UKMET, and European models agreed that 97L will pass north of the Leeward Islands, although the islands need to monitor 97L until such a track is clearly unfolding. Beyond that point, the ensemble members diverge—most of them sharply recurving, but a few heading more westward. The ultimate outcome may be influenced by Humberto, which is likely to carve out a persistent weakness in the steering currents that may allow 97L to recurve. * au 16 septembre le NHC met 50%de chance de développement sous 2 jours

Merci pour la création du suivi d'Humberto. Les données actuelles fourni par le NHC: HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTLINE... 5:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 Location: 29.7°N 77.3°W Moving: NE at 5 mph Min pressure: 980 mb Max sustained: 85 mph Et une petite animation d'Humberto :

Léger renforcement de la TS Humberto: As of 00:00 UTC Sep 15, 2019: Location: 27.4°N 77.2°W Maximum Winds: 45 kt Gusts: 55 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb Humberto devrait passer Ouragan dans la nuit de dimanche ou lundi en journée selon le NHC. Il reste 2 zones sous surveillance. Celle qui a le plus grande chance de développement sous 5 jours (60%) pourrait devenir une dépression tropicale en milieu de semaine prochaine. Mais les runs GFS et du modèle européen de ce jour font remonter ce phénomène vers le NO et il ne menacerait donc pas les Petites Antilles.

Les dernières informations sur la TS Umberto: ...CENTER OF HUMBERTO NOW EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND... 5:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 Location: 26.3°N 76.0°W Moving: NW at 7 mph Min pressure: 1007 mb Max sustained: 40 mph

PTC 9 est devenue ce soir dépression tropicale n°9 et à priori tempête tropicale Humberto demain samedi. Sur le bassin Atlantique une 3ème zone sous surveillance est apparu, j'avoue que je suis un peu perdu là....

En cours il y a le PTC 9 au niveau des Bahamas, un avion de reconnaissance est sur place: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE... Pour le début de semaine, nous avons l'invest 96L qui devrait aborder l'arc antillais: 1. A tropical wave located midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and showers. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development in a couple days, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Une deuxième onde en jaune est sous surveillance mais l'échéance est trop lointaine.

Bahamas : 2500 personnes toujours portées disparues Le bilan provisoire du passage dévastateur de l’ouragan Dorian au Bahamas est d’au moins 50 morts. Les autorités craignent toutefois un bilan définitif bien plus lourd. A l'heure actuelle, environ 2500 personnes sont inscrites sur le registre gouvernemental des personnes portées disparues"selon l’agence bahaméenne des situations d'urgence (NEMA), qui précise que cette liste n'a "pas encore été comparée aux registres du gouvernement sur les personnes placées dans des refuges ou qui ont été évacuées". Depuis plusieurs jours, les médias locaux rapportent des témoignages faisant mention de corps enterrés en vitesse dans des fosses sur les îles Abacos et Grand Bahama. Sur place, les témoins décrivent également l’odeur pestilentielle des corps restés au soleil depuis maintenant près d’une dizaine de jours. Les rescapés eux ne perdent pas espoir et tentent à tout prix d’avoir des nouvelles de leurs proches encore portés disparus. Avec des vents à près de 300km/h qui se sont abattus pendant deux jours sur l'archipel, Dorian est l'ouragan le plus violent qu'ait connu les Bahamas. Article tiré de RCi

60, 80 ou 90% je ne vois pas quelles décisions peuvent faire prendre ces pourcentages mise à part alerter la population et les pouvoirs publics sur la probable formation d'un phénomène cyclonique à court terme. L'invest 95L passe à 40% sous 2 jours

Les prévisions de trajectoire (GFS) et d'intensité pour l'invest 95L. A noter que l'invest 95L va entrer dans une zone où la température de la mer est supérieur à 30°C, Dorian ayant brasser la mer un peu plus au nord (zone à 27°C vers les 2 îles des Bahamas durement touchées)

Bilan du passage de la tempête DORIAN sur les Antilles françaises réalisé par MF: Bilan MF

Nouveau point de Jeff Masters sur les 3 ondes actuellement sous surveillance: Article complet The National Hurricane Center has kept their orange and red crayons sheathed over the past day, but there are three “yellow crayon” areas of concern with 5-day odds of development of 20 - 30% in the Atlantic. 94L headed towards the Lesser Antilles has lost most of its convection A tropical wave (94L) located at 11am EDT Tuesday near 14N, 47W, about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, was headed west at about 10 mph. This system has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms since Monday, and has very poor model support for development. Satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that 94L had an elongated but fairly well-defined surface circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity. The severely limited heavy thunderstorm activity was due to dry air, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis. The 6Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that the atmosphere in front of 94L would have mostly favorable conditions for development over the next two days, with low wind shear and sea surface temperatures of 28 – 29°C (82 – 84°F). However, mid-level relative humidity was predicted to remain near 55%, which is on the dry side for tropical cyclone development. Dry air will inhibit development unless 94L can generate enough heavy thunderstorm activity to moisten the atmosphere. By Friday, when 94L will be nearing the Lesser Antilles Islands, some models (though not all) were predicting moderate wind shear that would make development more difficult. The 0Z and 6Z Tuesday runs of our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET—all showed no support for development, and none of the 70 members of the 0Z ensemble runs of the GFS and European models showed 94L reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands as a tropical depression. The tropical wave is predicted to take a track mostly to the west over the coming week, and 94L could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Saturday. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20%. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Humberto. Next wave to watch is off the coast of Africa A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Monday had less support for development from the Tuesday morning model runs than than on Monday, but it is still one we need to keep a close eye on. This wave, which had not yet been given an “Invest” assignment by NHC, had a good deal of spin but limited heavy thunderstorm activity on Tuesday morning, as seen on satellite imagery. The tropical wave will benefit from the moister atmosphere that 94L has created in its wake, but none of the 0Z and 6Z Tuesday runs of our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET—predicted that the wave would develop in the coming five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively. Disturbance in the southeast Bahamas An area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system was bringing disorganized heavy thunderstorms to the waters of the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday morning. The system was showing increasing organization on satellite imagery compared to on Monday, but was battling high wind shear near 20 knots. We can expect the disturbance to bring a few areas of 2 – 4” of rain to portions of Cuba and southern portions of The Bahamas Tuesday through Thursday, and to South Florida Friday through Sunday. This system had support for development from about 10 – 20% of the 70 ensemble members of the 0Z Tuesday GFS and European models, with development most likely to occur on Saturday or Sunday, after the system crosses Florida and enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 30%, respectively.